[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 01N to 11N east of 31W. This tropical
wave has a low chance of developing a tropical cyclone within the
next 48 hrs. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41.5W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to
09N between 40W and 44W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W from 21N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are currently impacting
the Lesser Antilles.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the NW Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 05N22W to 05N37W. A segment of the ITCZ is
analyzed from 04N44W to 04N50W. In addition to the convection
previously described in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is currently noted from 15N to 18N between
14W and 17W, moving W out of Senegal and Mauritania.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the eastern Gulf from 22N87W to 29N85W.
This trough was likely induced earlier today by an upper level low
centered over the NE Gulf. Currently, scattered showers are
occurring with these features in the Gulf east of the trough
axis. An area of scattered moderate convection is also noted
within 80 nm of the west coast of Cuba in the Yucatan Channel.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail, with locally fresh SE winds
in the W Gulf near the coast of Mexico and S Texas. Seas are 3 to
5 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, a deep layer trough extending from the NE
through central Gulf will move west through the NW Gulf through
the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms as well
as fresh SE winds along with it. Gentle to moderate SE winds will
persist from early to mid week between a trough over the far
southeast Gulf and high pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderates trades in the E Caribbean diminish to light
to gentle trades in the W Caribbean, as a result of the weak
pressure gradient throughout the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft across
most of the Caribbean, except 4-6 ft near the Windward and Leeward
Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti and
the Windward Passage. An additional area of scattered moderate
convection, associated with the E Pacific Monsoon Trough, is
noted south of 12N between the Colombia/Venezuela border and 80W.

For the forecast, a tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will move westward across the basin through Mon. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south
central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next week, with
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will increase and
seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle of next week
as high pressure north of the basin extends into the basin in the
wake of the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, supported by ASCAT data, is analyzed from 28N78W
to 30N78W. Scattered showers are noted near the trough axis.
A second surface trough extends from 30N61W to 26N63W. This
trough and the associated upper level low are producing
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough axis.
Fresh E winds are occurring with this trough as well. Throughout
the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail. The exceptions are
within 60 nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola, where fresh
trades are observed, and southwest of the Canary Islands, where
fresh NE winds are observed. Seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across
much of the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are present SW of
the Canary Islands in the area of fresh winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, the low pressure trough off the NE
Florida coast will weaken and any associated shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish. A trough east of the area
will move across the region Sat through Tue, followed by weak high
pressure through mid week.

$$
Mahoney
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