[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave between the African coast and Cabo
Verde Islands is along 20W/21W from 16N southward and moving W at
10 to 15 kt. A low pressure centered is embedded within this wave
near 08N21W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 02N to 12N E of 28W. This tropical wave
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 17N southward and
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 08N
between 37W and 41W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 15N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
seen mainly W of the wave axis from 06N to 11N between 50W and
57W, just north of French Guyana and Suriname.

A Caribbean tropical wave is W of the Lesser Antilles along 62W
from 18N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are found over northern Venezuela and
Guyana from 06N to 11N between 58W and 65W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward
crossing Panama. The wave is moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea from 09N to 14N
between 76W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near
13N16W to 05N26W to 04N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N41W
to 05N48W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, no significant convection is occurring along these
features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The diurnal trough that developed along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is now over the Bay of Campeche. This feature is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
Veracruz area. This trough is also producing moderate to fresh
E-ENE winds over the Bay of Campeche W of 94W.

A surface trough over the southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Channel
near 24N86W is coupling with an upper-level low near the Big Bend
area at 29N84W to produce scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the SE Gulf and western Cuba. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present near these showers
and thunderstorms.

High pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light
to gentle E to SE winds are noted over the northern Gulf. Seas of
3 to 5 ft are found over western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft across the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northeastern
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected through early
next week. A trough over the Yucatan Channel will move through
the west central Gulf by Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf through
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface trough mentioned in the Gulf of Mexico section is
also producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
and just south of western Cuba. Modest pressure gradient between
the Atlantic ridge north of Cuba and the Colombian low is supporting
moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the
south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3
to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are forecast across the
basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds will
return to the south-central Caribbean by Mon and to the Gulf of
Honduras Tue. A tropical wave located just W of the Lesser Antilles
will move across the central Caribbean Sun and enter the western
Caribbean early next week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will follow the tropical wave over the Windward Islands and adjacent
waters through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over central and northern Florida coast is
interacting with a dying front off coast of Georgia near 31N80W
to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N and
west of 79W. Another surface trough southeast of Bermuda near
29N60W is coupling with an upper-level low near 28N62W to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 31N between 52W
and 63W.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
seen just S of Bermuda N of 26N between 53W and 74W. Fresh to
locally strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present near and NW
of the Canary Islands from 14N to 22N between 21W and 31W. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the
remainder of the Atlantic basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a few showers and thunderstorms are
active off northeast Florida along a stalled frontal boundary.
Moderate to fresh E winds are ongoing across the southern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Moderate winds and seas are
noted elsewhere over open waters. The front will dissipate through
tonight. A trough east of the area will move across the region
Sat through early next week.

$$

GR/PC
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