[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is centered where the wave
intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 12N E of 30W.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
association with this low pressure area the next 48 hours.
Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 08N
between 36W and 42W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 15N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 18N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found over northern Venezuela from 07N to 10N
between 63W and 67W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from 20N southward,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough, south of 14N between 76W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near
12N16W to 05N25W to 05N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N41W
to 05N47W. Associated convection is noted in the tropical waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf from 27N86W to the
northern part of the Yucatan peninsula. A second trough is over
the SW Gulf from 24N94W to 20N94W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail south of 25N, with light to gentle winds north of 25N.
Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west of 91W as well as over the SE
Gulf. Elsewhere, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the trough over the central Gulf will move
across the northwest Gulf through Sun night, accompanied by fresh
SE winds. Gentle to moderate SE winds will persist from early to
mid week between a trough over the far southeast Gulf and high
pressure over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TA modest pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of
Cuba and the Colombian low is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the rest of
the basin. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the eastern
Caribbean and 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over
the south central Caribbean and off Honduras into early next
week, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Winds will
increase and seas will build slightly in most areas by the middle
of next week as high pressure north of the basin extends into
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Florida NE to near
31N80W. Scattered moderate showers are in the vicinity of the
trough. Another surface trough extends from southeast of Bermuda
near 26N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the
trough from 25N to 31N between 52W and 63W.

Light to gentle winds are over the NW waters in the vicinity of
the surface trough off the coast of Florida. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across much of the
discussion area. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft are present near and NW of the Canary Islands from 14N to 22N
between 21W and 28W.

For the forecast W of 65W, The surface trough off Florida will
dissipate through tonight. A trough east of the area will move
across the region Sat through Tue, followed by weak high pressure
through mid week.

$$
AL
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