[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave between the African coast and Cabo Verde Islands
has an axis along 20W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 12N
E of 23W. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into
a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W and from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 09N between 36W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 11N southward to
06N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 09N between 47W and 52W.

The axis of a tropical wave has moved into the eastern Carribbean
along 63W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection extends behind this wave from 07N to 11N
between 54W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the SW Caribbean south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then continues
from 05N39W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section, no significant convection is occurring
along these features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Early this morning the diurnal trough that developed along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has moved west into the Bay of
Campeche. This is supporting numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection E of 20N. This trough is also producing fresh E-NE
winds offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N to 22N
between 89W and 92W. High pressure ridging prevails across the
rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle E winds prevail over the NE
Gulf, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5
ft range in western and central Gulf and 2-4 ft the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail
through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring
fresh E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula through tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across
the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the NW Caribbean, a weak surface trough is analyzed from the
coast of Cuba near 22N83W southward to 18N83W. Convection previous
associated with this feature has diminished. A weak pressure
gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters, supporting moderate
trades over most of the Caribbean, The exception is in the central
Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Colombia where trades are
locally fresh, and in the NW Caribbean where trades are light to
gentle. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, and
2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the
basin through the weekend. By Mon, fresh to strong easterly winds
will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf of
Honduras Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the
eastern Caribbean into Sat. This will enhance convection in this
area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening surface trough is analyzed along the N Florida coast.
N of 27N and W of 78W, scattered moderate convection continues.
A second surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 25N56W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in
association with this trough N of 25N between 54W and 62W. Light
to gentle trades are noted north of the Bahamas off the coast of
Florida. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder of
the discussion waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where
NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas are 3-6 ft across most
of the Atlantic, except 6-9 ft in the area of fresh winds near the
Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast, quiescent conditions are expected through the
weekend. A surface trough is to move northwest through Sun,
staying north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles.

$$

KONARIK
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