[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa with an axis near
18W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 12N east of 21W. This tropical wave has
a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48
hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W and from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 09N
between 36W and 39W and from 02N to 05N between 32W and 38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward to 06N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
09N between 47W and 52W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles along 61.5W
from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 54W and 57W.
Additional scattered moderate convection is noted inland over
E Venezuela and W Guyana.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 78.5W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the SW
Caribbean south of 12N and in the NW Caribbean between Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then continues
from 05N39W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 21W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The only surface feature in the Gulf of Mexico tonight is the
diurnal trough along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
which is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 20N and
east of 93W in the SE Bay of Campeche. This trough is also
producing fresh to locally strong E-NE winds offshore of the NW
Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N to 22N between 89W and 92W. High
pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light to
gentle E winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
E-SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft range in western and central
Gulf and 2-4 ft the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail
through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the NW Caribbean, a weak surface trough is analyzed from the
coast of Cuba near 22N81W southward to 18N81W. This feature and a
nearby tropical wave are producing scattered showers between Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. A weak pressure gradient
prevails over the Caribbean waters, supporting moderate trades
over most of the Caribbean, The exception is in the central
Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Colombia where trades are
locally fresh, and in the NW Caribbean where trades are light to
gentle. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, and
2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the
basin through the weekend. Sunday night, fresh to strong easterly
winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf
of Honduras by Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the
eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat. This will enhance convection
in this area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed across the waters off the coast of
Florida, from 25N81W to 30N89W. Scattered showers and isolated moderate
convection is within 140 nm east of this trough. A second surface
trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 25N56W. This surface trough, in
association with an upper level low, is producing scattered
moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough axis. Light to
gentle trades are noted north of the Bahamas off the coast of
Florida. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder
of the discussion waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where
NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas are 3-6 ft across most
of the Atlantic, except 6-9 ft in the area of fresh winds near
the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will dissipate across
north Florida and off the U.S. eastern seaboard. This boundary
will enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
western Atlantic mainly west of 76W and N of 25N. Quiescent
conditions are expected during the weekend. A surface trough is to
move northwest Fri through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and
Greater Antilles.

$$
Mahoney
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