[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa with axis near
16W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 10N between 13W and 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W and from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from 11N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 09N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 16N between 54W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave axis is near 77W from 10N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 12N between 76W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N25W to 05N40W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N40W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in
the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is found from 00N to 06N between 21W and 30W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between
40W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western Gulf and
1-2 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northeastern
Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail through early
next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across
the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the central
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the
eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across
the basin through the weekend. By Mon, fresh to strong easterly
winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf
of Honduras by Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across
the eastern Caribbean on Fri into Sat. This will enhance
convection in this area through Sat and shift to the central
Caribbean by Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the waters off the coast of
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm east of
this trough. A second surface trough is analyzed from 30N55W to
24N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
180 nm of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds are noted over
the waters off Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
much of the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range off the coast of northern Florida and 1-3 ft
elsewhere west of 75W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary across north Florida and
off the U.S. eastern seaboard is enhancing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. By
Fri night, the front will dissipate and quiescent conditions are
expected during the weekend. A surface trough is forecast to
move northwest Fri through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and
Greater Antilles.

$$
AL
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