[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1500 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is just off the African coast along
15W and from 15N southward, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A 1010 mb
low pressure center is along the wave's axis near 09N15W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 13W and
19W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W and from 16N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 01N
to 06N between 30W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 11N southward,
and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail from 07N to 09N
between 42W and 48W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 15N southward,
and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present east of the wave from 06N to 14N between 51W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 76W from 10N southward,
and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola from 18N to 19N between 72W
and 80W, and also over northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N27W to 05N38W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N38W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
found from 01N to 07N between 19W and 25W.

Another monsoon trough runs westward from northern coast of
Colombia through Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident off the Colombian coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs northeastward from the Keys across
southeastern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring across these areas from 24N to 26N between 79W to
85W. A surface ridge passes through central Florida near 27N83W,
toward the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. The
sea heights range from 3 to 4 ft across the western Gulf, and
from 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters. A diurnally induced trough will develop over the Yucatan
each evening. This will lead to fresh E to SE winds pulsing each
night NW of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Fri night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the eastern
and central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on
convection.

Moderate to fresh winds seen south of Hispaniola from 15N to 17N
between 68W and 73W, and over the south central Caribbean from
11N to 15N between 73W and 77W with seas at 5 to 7 ft. Similar
conditions are also present near the Windward Passage. Sea heights
of 2 to 4 ft are elsewhere. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N
between 74W in Colombia, and beyond NW Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers prevail along the trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean has
loosened, which is bringing moderate to fresh winds across the
region. Strong winds across the south-central Caribbean is
expected to begin again by early next week. A tropical wave is
expected to move across the eastern Caribbean on Fri into Sat and
will enhance convection throughout the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on
convection.

A surface trough from southern Florida extends northeastward to
off the Georgia coast at 31N78W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from central Florida northeastward to the
western end of the Atlantic north of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are in this area. A pronounced upper- level
low at 27N54W is coupling with a surface trough axis near 27N51W
to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 30N
between 51W and 58W. Moderate to fresh winds with seas at 4 to 6
ft are found near this area. A surface ridge extends southwestward
from a 1029 mb high pressure passing near Bermuda at 31N65W to
central Florida near 29N82W. Fresh to locally strong N and NE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are within 450 nm west of the coast of
Africa from 14N to 23N. Gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
present elsewhere.

For the forecast, scattered showers prevail across the western
Atlantic mainly west of 75W. This activity will continue through
the next few days, as a frontal boundary lingers across north
Florida through Fri evening. A surface trough is expected to move
north of the Lesser Antilles Friday night, then continue moving
westward through the weekend while staying north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola.

$$

Mora/Chan
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