[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 37.5N 72.1W at 21/2100
UTC or 240 nm SSW of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE at 25
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast
track, Claudette will move across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean
tonight, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Little
change in strength is forecast tonight. Some weakening is expected
on Tuesday, and Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. See
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details. For marine information, please see products
from the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 17W from 04N to 16N,
moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 15N between 14W and 23W. Strong winds were detected within
this area of convection by a scatterometer pass.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 36W from 02N-13N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. At this time, no convection is noted with this
tropical wave.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 03N to 14N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 13N between 46W and 58W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from 09N to 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the northern portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N17W
to 06N21W to 06N32W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N37W to
06N45W and from 06N49W to the border of Suriname and French
Guiana near 06N55W. For convection information, see the tropical
waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging covers the eastern half of the basin while low
pressure has built W of 90W. Upper-level diffluent flow over the
north-central Gulf continue to support heavy showers and tstms N
of 25N between the Florida Big Bend and Louisiana offshore
waters. Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin W of 87W
with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds
with seas to 3 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are
expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean this
evening, supporting the continuation of showers and tstms in
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage, and western Puerto Rico. An upper
level low to the west of this wave supports similar shower
activity over Jamaica and portions of Cuba. Aside from the
convection, the wave is supporting fresh to locally strong
easterlies from the coast of Hispaniola to the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range over this region
with the highest seas in the south-central basin. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere, except in the Gulf of Honduras where
fresh to strongs winds are pulsing this evening.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with
the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Hispaniola along 72W
will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today and
Tue increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Wed and Thu.
Another tropical wave is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles
by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Claudette located N of the forecast waters.

The Azores high dominates the entire tropical Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh easterlies S of 24N and W of 55W.
However, locally strong winds are happening over Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Over the far eastern Atlantic, NE fresh winds are
between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will dominate the
area during the next several days. Fresh S to SW winds are
expected through late today over waters N of 30N W of 70W due to
the pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high
pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the
Windward Passage through the end of the week.

$$
Ramos
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