[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of CLAUDETTE, at 22/0300 UTC, are in the Atlantic
Ocean near 39.0N 69.0W, or about 139 nm/260 km to the SSE of
Nantucket in Massachusetts. CLAUDETTE is moving toward the ENE,
060 degrees, 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with
gusts to 50 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
is in the Atlantic Ocean from 37N to 41N between 66W and 68W,
from 110 nm to 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. No
coastal watches or warnings are associated with the remnants of
CLAUDETTE. Additional information about this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and online, at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 16N southward, moving W 5
knots. Upper level SE wind flow is moving through the area of
the tropical wave, from 10N to 20N between Africa and 24W.
Precipitation: it is probable that any significant nearby
precipitation may be connected more to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 14N
southward, moving W from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: it
is probable that any significant nearby precipitation may be
connected more to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N
southward, moving W from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 10N to 12N between 50W and
56W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between 46W
and 60W. Moderate-to-fresh NE winds are within 400 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 11N to 16N. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 8 feet, in the areas of the comparatively
faster wind speeds.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is in Colombia and Venezuela, within 60 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, from 08N to 11N. The tropical
wave is moving into the area of an upper level trough, that
extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is
in the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. Moderate-to-fresh NE
winds are within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
15N southward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet,
within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 15N
southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W, to 06N23W, and 06N31W. The
ITCZ is along 04N38W 05N43W 05N46W, and along 05N/06N between
49W and 53W/54W, at the coast of French Guiana. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 14N
southward from 24W eastward, and from 10N southward between 24W
and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through
29N72W, across Florida, to 28N/29N along 86W in the Gulf of
Mexico, toward the coastal waters off the upper Texas Gulf
coast, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the Florida
Panhandle, and in southern Alabama. Isolated moderate is spread
across the rest of the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are expected, each
night into the early morning hours, to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula, through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is in Colombia and Venezuela, within 60 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, from 08N to 11N. The tropical
wave is moving into the area of an upper level trough, that
extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is
in the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. Moderate-to-fresh NE
winds are within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
15N southward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet,
within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 15N
southward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia beyond
northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough between 84W and 86W in the
coastal plains and the coastal waters of Costa Rica.

The Atlantic Ocean high pressure will combine with the low
pressure that is Colombia, in order to support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.
Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras at night through Thursday
night. A 73W Hispaniola tropical wave will continue moving
westward, through the central and western Caribbean Sea,
enhancing the likelihood of rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Another tropical wave is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles
by Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 33N41W 31N43W 27N43W 23N41W. An upper
level trough is about 345 nm to the NW of the surface trough.
The upper level trough is moving toward the area of the surface
trough, and it appears to be not connected to the surface
trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward
between the surface trough and 60W. Isolated moderate is within
300 nm to the east of the surface trough from 23N northward.

A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N56W, to 29N72W, across Florida, to 28N/29N along 86W
in the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 24N southward and W of
55W. Fresh NE winds were being reported between the coast of W
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. The sea heights were ranging
from 7 feet to 8 feet, from 29N to 34N from 14W eastward.

A surface ridge will dominate the area during the next several
days. Fresh S to SW winds are expected through tonight, in the
waters that are to the N of 30N W of 70W, due to the surface
pressure gradient that exists between Claudette and the Atlantic
Ocean high pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected
to pulse at night in the Hispaniola adjacent waters, including
in the approaches to the Windward Passage, through the end of
the week.

$$
mt/ERA
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