[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 37.0N 75.0W at 21/1500
UTC or 80 nm S of Ocean City, Maryland moving ENE at 24 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast
track, the system will cross into the western Atlantic Ocean later
this morning, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some
additional slight strengthening is possible over the western
Atlantic Ocean today. Claudette is forecast to become a post-
tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday
night. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details. For marine information, please see products from
the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 16W from 04N to 16N,
moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 15N east of 21W. Strong winds were detected within this
area of convection by a scatterometer pass.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 35W from 02N-13N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. At this time, no convection is noted with this
tropical wave.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 03N to 14N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 12N between 47W and 50W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 71.5W from 09N to 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the northern portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 07N20W to 06N30W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N35W to
07N44W and from 06N47W to the border of Suriname and French Guiana
near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N
between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Upper level divergence
over the N Gulf is supporting scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection north of 26N between the Florida and Texas
coasts. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh SE-S
winds across the gulf waters. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across
the basin, except in the NW Gulf from 94W to the Texas Coast where
seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
over the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds are
expected each night into the early morning hours to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the section above for more details on the tropical wave
moving through the basin.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
over the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 13N
between 78W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This area
of convection is supported by the E Pacific Monsoon Trough,
located over Panama and NW Colombia. In the central Caribbean,
strong winds were shown by the latest scatterometer data from the
coast of Colombia north to 14N between 72W and 77W. These strong
winds are a result of the pressure gradient between the
Bermuda/Azores high and the lower pressure associated with the E
Pacific Monsoon Trough and tropical wave. This pressure gradient
also supports moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the
Caribbean, except for the NW Caribbean where there are gentle to
moderate SW winds. Seas range between 5 and 7 ft, except 6-9 ft
in the central Caribbean with the area of fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with
the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the
south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Thu night. A tropical wave currently over Hispaniola along 71W
will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today
enhancing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Claudette.

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

The Bermuda/Azores highs centered near 28N60W and 30N47W
dominate the entire tropical Atlantic and support mainly moderate
return flow south of 23N with light to gentle return flow north
of 23N within the discussion waters. A surface trough extends from
25N39W to 31N42W, with no convection noted at this time. Scattered
showers are noted from the Bahamas north to 31N between 77W and
the Atlantic coast of Florida. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Bahamas and
off the coast of S Florida. Elsewhere, seas are 5-8 ft throughout
the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will dominate the
area during the next several days. Fresh to strong S to SW winds
are expected to develop over waters N of 29N today due to the
pressure gradient between Claudette and the Atlantic high
pressure. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at
night over Hispaniola adjacent waters including approaches to the
Windward Passage through the end of the week.

$$
Mahoney
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