[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 33.3N 85.8W at
20/0900 UTC or 70 nm WSW of Atlanta Georgia moving ENE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 200 nm in the eastern semicircle. On
the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the
southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coasts of North
Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located
south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is
expected by late today, and Claudette is expected to become a
tropical storm again on Monday over eastern North Carolina.
Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean
through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-
tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. See the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 11N between 40W-43W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 23N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is noted from 11N to 17N
between 63W to 67W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 12N and W of 80W. Isolated
convection is also noted near Cuba, N of 20N between 80W to 82W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 89W from 20N southward, moving
W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are present in the vicinity of the
wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N20W to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W to
09N37W then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N44W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 12N and E of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 38W to 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Claudette.

A trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N92W to 24N97W in
addition to the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 19N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Gulf, N of 25N
and W of 90W. Fresh winds continue across the NE Gulf with
moderate to locally fresh south to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas
range 4-6 ft in the NE gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Claudette is well inland across
the southeastern U.S. An area of fresh S to SW winds, with seas
to 8 ft, is expected to continue across the NE Gulf waters N of
28N between 85W and 90W through this morning. These conditions
are expected to improve today. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
can also be expected today across the northeastern Gulf. High
pressure is forecast to build in across the basin today and into
early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow
will set up across the western Gulf later today and continue
through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near tropical
waves as described in the tropical waves section. No other
significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range in the south-central Caribbean with 4-6 ft across the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean supporting some
shower and thunderstorm activity in that area. It will continue to
enhance showers and thunderstorms across the western and central
Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast and in the northern
Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are noted across this region with seas 4-6 ft. In the central
Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends across the area with no
significant convection noted. Winds are moderate to fresh S of 25N
and seas 6-8 ft. North of 25N, light to gentle winds prevail with
seas 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb low is noted near
27N31W with a warm front extending east of the low to 27N28W and a
cold front west of the low to 30N37W. Showers are along this
front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in this region with 6-8
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters
N of 29N tonight and continue through Mon night.

$$
AReinhart
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