[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 32.6N 87.0W at
20/0300 UTC or 40 nm WNW of Montgomery Alabama moving NE at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection extends outward
up to 360 nm in the southeast semicircle and 340 nm in the
northeast semicircle. The system should cross portions of the
southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and move over the coasts of
the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Claudette
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across
portions of northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida
Panhandle, and South and North Carolina on Sunday. Considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are expected
across these areas. See the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 11N between 37W-43W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W S of 21N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the wave axis from 11N to 18N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 13N and W of 78W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 86/87W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are present in the
vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
1N15W4 to 07N25W to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 05N44W to
03N50W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical
waves section, an area of numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of
Sierra Leone and Liberia from 03N to 10N east of 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Claudette.

A trough extends across the western Gulf from 27N93W to 25N97W.
A second trough is noted over the Bay of Campeche along the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted across
the Northern half of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail west
of the trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere.
Seas range between 8 to 11 ft north of 28N near the coast of
Alabama, and 3-6 ft elsewhere except the SW Gulf where seas are in
the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Claudette is well inland
across the southeastern U.S. An area of fresh to strong S to SW
winds, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range associated with an outer
band of Claudette is affecting the NE Gulf waters, mainly N of
28N between 85W and 90W. These marine conditions will persist
through overnight while gradually diminishing by Sun. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms can also be expected overnight across
the northern Gulf. High pressure is forecast to build in across
the basin in the wake of Claudette late tonight into early next
week. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up
across the western Gulf on Sun and continue through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring near the tropical
waves, described above in the tropical waves section. No other
significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
Fresh to strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft over most of the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with
the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the
south- central Caribbean through Tue morning. Pulsing fresh to
strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Wed night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean
supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity in that area.
Another tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will continue
moving westward into the central Caribbean overnight and into Sun,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning near the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 29N61W with scattered showers
noted about 100 nm southeast of the front. In the western Atlantic,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the Florida
coast north from 28N to 32N and west of 78W. Otherwise, a ridge of
high pressure, anchored by high pressure of 1028 mb near 30N45W.
Light to gentle winds generally prevail north of 22N, with
moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3
ft range west of 76W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Further east, a
surface trough extends from 32N39W to 27N42W with scattered
showers and tstorms about 90 nm ahead of the boundary. Also, a
weak 1021 mb low pressure is visible near 27N27W with a cold front
extending southwest to 24N30W and then lifting northwest to
30N36W. Scattered showers are possible along the boundary. Over
the deep tropics S of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu night.
Fresh winds are expected to develop over waters N of 29N Sun
afternoon through Mon night.

$$
Torres
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