[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Claudette is centered
near 32.2N 87.9W at 19/2100 UTC or 80 nm W of Montgomery Alabama
moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
extends outward up to 330 nm in the southeast semicircle.
Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern
Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on
Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts are expected across these areas. See the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Northerly gales are occurring in a
small area off the coast of Agadir Morocco from 30N-31N between
09.5W and 11W. According to the forecast from Meteo France, the
gales will continue through 20/0000 UTC tonight. Please see the
latest High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from
Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 11N between 35W-43W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W S of 21N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the wave axis from 11N to 18N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is mainly
confined to the SW Caribbean, south of 10N.

The axis of tropical wave is near 86/87W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are present in the
vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N37W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N42W to 03N48W. Aside
from the convection described in the tropical waves section, an
area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough, off the coasts of Sierra Leone and
Liberia from 02N to 09N east of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 20W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Claudette.

Elsewhere, a trough extends across the western Gulf from 27N82W
to 25N97W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of the trough, with
moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12
ft range N of 27N between 85W and 89W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere
except the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2-3 ft range.

For the forecast, Claudette is downgraded to a Tropical
Depression at 5 PM EDT. It is moving NE at 14 kt over the
northern Gulf states. An area of fresh to strong S to SW winds,
with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range associated with an outer band
of Claudette is affecting the NE Gulf waters, mainly N of 28N
between 85W and 90W. These marine conditions will persist through
tonight while gradually diminishing. High pressure is forecast
to build in across the basin in the wake of Claudette late
tonight into early next week. Fresh to locally strong southerly
return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Sun, then
continue through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstorms are occurring near the tropical
waves, described above in the tropical waves section. No other
significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
Fresh to strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range
over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft over most of the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Mon. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave is moving from the central Caribbean into
the western Caribbean supporting some shower and thunderstorm
activity. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean. This wave
will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight and Sun increasing
the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
Warning near the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 29.5N65W. Otherwise, a ridge
of high pressure, anchored by high pressure of 1027 mb near
30N44W, prevails along 26/27N. Light to gentle winds generally
prevail north of 22N, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing
elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 76W, and 3-6 ft
elsewhere. Over the deep tropics S of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft
range.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
including approaches to the Windward Passage through Thu night.

$$
AL
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