[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Claudette is centered near 33.8N 84.2W at
20/1500 UTC or 10 nm ENE of Atlanta Georgia moving ENE at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the forecast track,
the system should continue to move across portions of the
southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North
Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass near
or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Some re-strengthening is
expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical
storm again late tonight or early Monday over eastern North
Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western
Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday.
See the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 42W, moving
W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to
11N between 40W-44W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 19N with axis near 67W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are occuring across Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, central and eastern Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
10N15W to 06N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
08N40W then continues west of a tropical wave near 08N44W to
08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N E of 25W,
from 05N to 10N between 27W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Claudette is moving ENE across the state of
Georgia. However, an outter rainband associated with the cyclone
continues to support heavy showers and tstms across the northern
Gulf waters. The heaviest showers are over Louisiana adjacent
waters just below an area of diffluent flow aloft. Recent
scatterometer data show




An area of fresh to strong winds is still
noted over the NE Gulf. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh
to locally strong southerly return flow will set up across the
western Gulf later today and continue through Mon.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near tropical
waves as described in the tropical waves section. No other
significant weather features or areas of precipitation are noted.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range in the south-central Caribbean with 4-6 ft across the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will combine with the
Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed
night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean supporting some
shower and thunderstorm activity in that area. It will continue to
enhance showers and thunderstorms across the western and central
Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast and in the northern
Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are noted across this region with seas 4-6 ft. In the central
Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends across the area with no
significant convection noted. Winds are moderate to fresh S of 25N
and seas 6-8 ft. North of 25N, light to gentle winds prevail with
seas 4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb low is noted near
27N31W with a warm front extending east of the low to 27N28W and a
cold front west of the low to 30N37W. Showers are along this
front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in this region with 6-8
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will dominate the area
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected to pulse at night over Hispaniola adjacent waters,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Thu night.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected to develop over waters
N of 29N tonight and continue through Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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