[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 20W and 25W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 42W and 51W. An additional area of
scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 02N between
44W and 49W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and
Senegal near 12N16W and continues to 04N32W. The ITCZ then continues
from 04N32W to 05N39W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 25W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Bay of Campeche
south of 22N, with isolated strong convection noted along the
coast of Tabasco and Campeche. This convection is supported by an
upper level anticyclone over Central America. Weak high pressure
ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with a surface trough
over the E Gulf from 27N84W to 23N87W. Light to gentle SE winds in
the eastern Gulf veer to S in the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft
throughout the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough
of low pressure is expected to form by early next week over the
Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent
slow development is possible as this system drifts slowly
northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Caribbean, with
fresh winds noted in the south-central portion of the basin off
the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south central
Caribbean, and 2-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined
with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia is
contributing toward fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Wed night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave over northern Colombia and
the central Caribbean has limited shower activity associated with
it over water. A new tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is located from 27N58W to 22N64W. Otherwise,
high pressure ridging dominates the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted across the tropical Atlantic. The
latest scatterometer data shows moderate to locally strong NE
winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 3-6 ft
throughout the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a
fresh breeze north of 28N tonight through the weekend as a cold
front moves by north of the area. Winds may again strengthen to
fresh north of 28N on Tue and Wed as another cold front moves by
north of the area.

$$
Mahoney
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