[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 17W and 24W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 40W and 51W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and
Senegal near 12N17W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to
04N45W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical
waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 08N between 25W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. There
is a trough over the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 25N84W to
22N87W. Scattered showers are noted near this trough. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf with light
to gentle SE winds in the western Gulf. Moderate SE winds are
noted along the Texas coast. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the NW Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over
the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting
mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A
trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over
the SW Gulf. Subsequent slow development of this system is
possible as it drifts northwestward to northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across most of the
Caribbean, with fresh winds noted in the south-central portion of
the basin. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in the south central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure over the SW N Atlantic
waters combined with lower pressure over Central America and
Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Wed night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean
has limited shower activity associated with it. A new tropical
wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected over these waters for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is located from 27N59W to 22N64W. Otherwise, high
pressure ridging dominates the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted across most of the region. Moderate
southerly winds are noted near 31N between 73W and 80W. Moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of
Africa N of 21N and E of 40W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 27N
will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a
fresh breeze north of 28N tonight through the weekend as a cold
front moves by north of the area. Winds and seas should be
quiescent across the waters on Mon and Tue. Winds may again
strengthen to fresh north of 28N on Wed. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected over these waters for the next several days.

$$
AL
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