[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120923
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W from just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N
between 25W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 43W and 53W. An
additional area of similar convection is noted from 02S to 03N
between 44W and 51W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 72W and 77W including
over portions of northern Colombia and far NW Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal and Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 05N25W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 07N29W to 04N35W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N35W to
07N46W. No additional convection is noted other than described in
the tropical wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring
in the Bay of Campeche south of 22N with intense lightning. This
convection is supported by an upper level anticyclone over Central
America. Weak surface high pressure ridging extends across the
Gulf of Mexico, with a surface trough over the E Gulf from 27N85W
to 23N88. Light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf veer to
SE-S in the western Gulf where speeds are gentle to moderate.
Earlier scatterometer data showed an area of fresh to strong winds
in the area of deep convection in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are
1-3 ft throughout the basin, except higher in and near the area of
deep convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough
of low pressure is expected to form by early next week over the
Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development is possible thereafter as this system drifts
northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are in the S central Caribbean between high
pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern
Colombia. Fresh E-SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle in the
lee of Cuba and also south of 11N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the
S central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 3 ft or less in
the lee of Cuba and south of 11N.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined
with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support
fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras through at least Wed night. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A
tropical wave over northern Colombia and moving toward the western
Caribbean has limited shower activity associated with it over
water. A new tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along the Space Coast of Florida from
30N80W to 27N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from 27N to 30N between the trough and 78W. Otherwise, high
pressure ridging dominates the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high
center just north of the area near 32N39W, extending west-
southwest through 29N55W to across the northern Bahamas. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are noted under the ridge, with moderate
to fresh S-SW flow off the coast of northern Florida. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except fresh to locally
strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range west of 65W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a
fresh breeze north of 28N through the weekend as a cold front
moves by north of the area. Winds may again strengthen to fresh
north of 28N on Tue and Wed as another cold front moves by north
of the area.

$$
Lewitsky
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