[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is located just off the
African coast near 18W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 18W and
27W. An additional area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 15N east of 18W. Recent
scatterometer data detected strong winds with this convection.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 13N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is over Venezuela near 66W
from 14N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted inland over central Venezuela.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues to 08N25W. Segments of the ITCZ are located
from 08N25W to 07N33W and from 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm north
and 200 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near
27N85W. A surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, producing scattered moderate convection in the southern
Bay of Campeche and inland over the Yucatan. The latest
scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf
around the high pressure center. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft in the central
Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure near 27N85W will remain over
the NE Gulf through Fri, supporting light to gentle anticyclonic
winds. Gentle to moderate SE winds will prevail over the southern
and western Gulf through Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse
tonight off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A
frontal trough will push southward over the SE U.S. this weekend,
inducing moderate west winds over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds will prevail early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of scattered moderate convection is present offshore near
the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, from 14N to 16N between 82W
and 84W. Scattered showers are noted between Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, and Jamaica, likely due to some weak upper level
divergence. Mainly moderate winds prevail over the Caribbean. The
exceptions are fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras and from the coast of Colombia to 13N. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A
weak tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean is helping to
induce scattered showers and thunderstorms in that part of the
area. The wave will reach the western Caribbean Sun. The next
tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Mon through Tue
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
southwestern Caribbean through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters anchored
by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N43W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds encompass most of the basin, with an area of
moderate NE winds in the eastern Atlantic to the southwest of the
Canary Islands. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters
north of 20N, and 4-7 ft south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will continue
tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the area. A weak
frontal trough will move over the far northwest waters during the
weekend and dissipate by late Mon. South of the trough, expect
fresh to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N,
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Mahoney
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