[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110934
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N-11N between 15W-23W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N-10N between 38W-42W.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is over Venezuela near 67W
from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted inland over central Venezuela.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N-10N between 80W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and
Senegal near 12N16W and continues to 08N25W. Segments of the ITCZ
are located from 08N25W to 07N37W and from 05N41W to the coast of
Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-07N between 19W-29W, and within 180
nm either side of the ITCZ between 41W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1016 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near
28N84W. A surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, producing scattered moderate convection in the SW Gulf
and Bay of Campeche. Earlier scatterometer data showed light to
gentle winds over the NE Gulf around the high pressure center.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are
in the 2-4 ft in the central Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will linger in the eastern Gulf
of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of scattered moderate convection is present offshore near
the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, from 13N-17.5N between
82W-85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
between Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica, likely due to some
weak upper level divergence. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over portions of western Colombia and Panama. Mainly
moderate winds prevail over the Caribbean. The exceptions are
fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and from the
coast of Colombia to 13.5N, with light to gentle winds south of
11N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 3-6
ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A
weak tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is helping to induce
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The wave will reach the
western Caribbean Sun. The next tropical wave will move into the
eastern Caribbean Mon through Tue night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the southwestern Caribbean through
today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak trough is analyzed from 30N57W to 24N62W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the trough.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N38W, with a ridge
extending west-southwest through 30N50W to 29N80W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are found from 22N-31N between 50W-77W
under the ridge. An area of moderate to fresh NE winds are noted
in the eastern Atlantic to the southwest of the Canary Islands.
Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range over the open waters north of 20N and west of 50W, and 4-7
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure along 29N will sink
south this weekend. Winds and seas will increase some north of 29N
tonight through the weekend as a cold front moves by north of the
area. Another cold front may move by north of the area early next
week.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net