[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the coast of Africa near
16W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 10N between 10W and 22W

The axis of a tropical wave is near 36/37W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the
coast of Venezuela.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from
09N22W to 08N32W, then continues W of a tropical wave from
07N39W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
10N between 10W and 22W, and from 00N to 06N between 38W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near
27N85W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N91W to
19N95W. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf around the
high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 3-5 ft range over the SE and NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri,
leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate
SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through
Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push
southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west
winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will
prevail on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range
over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will continue
over most of the area through Sun. Winds will increase to fresh
to strong speeds in the south-central Caribbean Fri night as high
pressure ridging becomes re-established along 25N over the
western Atlantic. Fresh winds will then continue over the central
Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters anchored
by 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N38W. A ridge extends
fro the high center westward along 28W/29W. Light to gentle winds
prevail in the vicinity of the high as well as within the ridge
axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range over the open waters north of 20N, and 4-7 ft south
of 20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
continue tonight as high pressure ridging remains over the area.
A weak frontal trough will move over the far northwest waters
during the weekend and dissipate by late Mon. South of the
trough, expect fresh to potentially locally strong southwest
winds north of 28N, along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

$$
AL
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