[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 15W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 03N-09N between Liberia to 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to
09N between 32W to 37W.

A tropical wave is along 62W from 12N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at
10N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from
08N21W to 07N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N37W
to 02N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-25W, and from
02N-06N between 37W-44W, including northern coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate
convection over the southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N.
At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 22N90W to 18N93W.
Elsewhere, a 1018 mb High centered over the northeast Gulf
is providing light and gentle winds across the basin with
seas ranging from 2 to 4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the far NE
near the center of the high.

The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri,
leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Gentle to moderate
SE winds will prevail over the southern and western Gulf through
Fri. Fresh easterly winds will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. A frontal trough will push
southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, inducing moderate west
winds over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds will
prevail on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin.
In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the Gulf of
Honduras and along the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds
prevail across the much of the basin, locally fresh in the south-
central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW Caribbean as well as
the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5
ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the
basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW
Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a
broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the
south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging
becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh
winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A
weak tropical wave will enter the southeastern Caribbean today,
possibly promoting the development of shower activity. The next
tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near
30N37W westward to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are north of 27N between 30W-69W, where seas are 3-5 ft.
Moderate trades prevail south of 27N. Scattered moderate
convection is seen north of PR to 26N between 61W-66W. Farther
east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of
60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south of the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over
the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late
Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh
to potentially locally strong southwest winds north of 28N, along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Torres
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