[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is inland in Africa along 14W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 02N-10N between 05W-18W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 13N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N
to 08.5N.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 13N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the NE coast of
Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough intersects the wave at
10N. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen near where
the wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is inland over western Venezuela and
eastern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N21W to 07N32W, then continues W of a tropical
wave from 05N35W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned
above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convections is from
06N-11N between 21W-23W, and from 03S-05N between 40W-52W,
including over NE Brazil and French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level low is centered over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level divergence is enhancing numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection over the southern Bay of Campeche,
south of 20.5N between 91.5W and 96.5W. Similar convection is
occurring over the Mexican states of Tabasco, Chiapas, Veracruz
and Oaxaca.

At the surface, a 1019 mb surface high pressure is centered over
the NE Gulf near 28N84W. Earlier ASCAT data showed light to gentle
anticyclonic winds over the NE Gulf of Mexico with moderate SE
winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

The high pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through Fri, with
similar winds across the basin through Fri. Fresh easterly winds
will pulse tonight off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
trough. A frontal trough will sink southward over the SE U.S. this
weekend, inducing moderate W winds over the NE Gulf. Light to
gentle variable winds will prevail on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin.
In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and also along the coast of Nicaragua.
Moderate trade winds prevail across the much of the basin, locally
fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle winds are in the NW
Caribbean as well as the SW Caribbean, north of Panama. Seas are
4-6 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail today across the
basin. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW
Caribbean through the remainder of this week in association with a
broad trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the
south-central Caribbean Fri night as high pressure ridging
becomes re-established along 25N over the west Atlantic. Fresh
winds will then continue over the central Caribbean through Mon. A
weak tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean today, enhancing
showers. The next tropical wave will reach the E Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near
32N51W to a 1019 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico near
28N84W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N
between 45W-78W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate trades prevail
south of 27N, locally fresh in the Old Bahama Channel and Florida
Straits. Gentle to moderate S winds are east of Florida. An upper-
level trough oriented NE-SW passes through 26N66W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 23N-26N between 61W-65W.

Farther east, fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic
east of 60W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh NE winds are seen south
of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds will
continue through tonight as high pressure ridging prevails over
the area. A frontal trough will be located north of the area late
Fri through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh
to potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N, along with
scattered showers and tstms.

$$
Hagen
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