[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad
trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Significant development
of this system appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward
or northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development,
this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia
and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later
this week and into the weekend. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 13N southward,
moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen within 180 nm on either side of the wave axis, from 04N-
09N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south
of 09N and along the coast of Brazil west to Guayana.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
and Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W
to 08N25W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N30W to 00N42W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near the
coast of Africa from 06N-19N, east of 17W. Scattered moderate
convection along the ITCZ is observed from 00N to 05N between 33W
to 37W, and from 04N to 09N between 29W to 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico providing light
to gentle anticyclonic winds across much of the Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the SE Gulf near a
surface trough located near 22N93W to 19N96W. A second trough is
observed over the Bay of Campeche, from 24N85W to 22N88W. Scattered
showers are noted mainly near the Mexican coast south of 19N with
this trough. Moderate SE winds prevail across most of the remainder
of the Gulf, except for fresh ESE in the Florida Straits. Seas
3-5 ft cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near
Florida.

For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf today.
By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high pressure settles
over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will sink southward
over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate SW to W
winds over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features and the Tropical Wave section above for
details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean
later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 70W.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection stretching
from the Windward Passage across Jamaica and south of Cuba to 81W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located in
the SW Gulf, south of 12N between 75W-84W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are seen over the eastern Caribbean, north of Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.

High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to
fresh tradewinds into tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle to
moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and
tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of
this week in association with a broad trough of low pressure.
Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central Caribbean this
weekend as high pressure ridging becomes re- established along 25N
over the west Atlantic. For the forecast,

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic trough extends southwest across Hispaniola
to western Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are east side
of this feature from Hispaniola north to 25N. At the surface, a
high pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N across the entire basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 32N56W. In the W Atlantic,
gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N. Moderate to fresh
trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the tropical Atlantic
south of 15N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 7-9
ft. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Further E,
a surface trough extends from 22N19W to 30N13W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. N to NE winds
ranged between 20 to 25 kts over the region.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken
over the W Atlantic today, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to
moderate tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri.
Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A
frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri
through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to
potentially locally strong SW winds north of 28N.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will
continue to pulse near the Canary Islands and off the coast of
Western Sahara during the next several days, where seas will reach
7-8 ft at times.

$$
Torres
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