[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad
trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Significant development
of this system appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward
or northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development,
this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia
and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later
this week and into the weekend. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 29W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen within 180 nm on either side of the wave axis,
from 02N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 57W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the wave axis and south of 12N and along the coast of
Brazil west to Guayana.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is ahead of the wave axis across the SW Caribbean, from 13N
southeastward to Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea-
Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from
08N23W to 08N27W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N32W
to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near
the coast of Africa from 02N-12N, east of 18W and is occurring
ahead of a tropical wave over Africa along 12W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 06.5N
between 32W to 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf of Mexico providing gentle to moderate SE winds
across much of the Gulf. Scattered showers and a few mild thunderstorms
are noted over the SE Gulf near a surface trough located near
24N86W to 22N88W. A second trough is observed over the Bay of
Campeche, from 24N85W to 22N88W. Scattered strong thunderstorms
have developed across the N portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
have expanded 30-45 nm offshore of the north coast. Seas 3-5 ft
cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near
Florida.

Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Thu night off
the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to the typical diurnal trough.
Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will maintain moderate
to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf through this
evening. By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high pressure
settles over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will sink
southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing moderate
SW to W winds over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features and the Tropical Wave section above for
details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean
later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 73W.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong diurnal convection
across the land masses of the Greater Antilles, from Hispaniola to
western Cuba, and is supported by broad middle to upper level
cyclonic flow across the SW N Atlantic. This convection will
likely linger into the evening hours.

High pressure ridging north of the area will support moderate to
fresh tradewinds into tonight. Winds will diminish to gentle to
moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens. Scattered showers and
tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean through the remainder of
this week in association with developing broad trough of low
pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central
Caribbean this weekend as high pressure ridging becomes re-
established along 25N over the west Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle to upper level cyclonic flow extends across the
western Atlantic from 30N65W southwestward to the SE Bahamas and
Cuba. In addition to the convection described above over the
Greater Antilles, clusters of moderate isolated strong convection
are noted over the Virgin Islands north and northwestward to the
Atlantic coastal waters of Puerto Rico. At the surface, a high
pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N-32N across the entire basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 32N55W. In the W
Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N. Moderate to
fresh trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the tropical
Atlantic south of 15N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where seas
are 7-9 ft. Saharan air and generally stable low level conditions
prevail north of the ITCZ and tropical wave induced convection,
northward to 19N, between W Africa and 54W. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the basin. Further E, a
surface trough extends from 22N19W to 30N13W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. N to NE winds ranged
between 20 to 25 kts over the region.

West of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken over the W
Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to moderate
tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri. Fresh E
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A frontal
trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri through the
weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh to potentially
locally strong SW winds north of 28N.

East of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue to pulse
near the Canary Islands and off the coast of Western Sahara
during the next several days, where seas will reach 7-8 ft at
times.

$$
Stripling
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