[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: A broad
trough of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some gradual
development is possible while the system moves slowly NW toward
Central America. This system could produce heavy rainfall later
this week and into the weekend across northern Colombia and
portions of Central America from Honduras southward. Please see
products from your local meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27/28W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen within 360 nm west and 90 nm east of the wave
axis, from 00N-08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
360 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-05N. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 360 nm W of the wave axis from 05N-
08N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection seen over N Colombia between 72.5W-76W is being
enhanced by the Colombian low and the approaching tropical wave.

A tropical wave along 84W from 15N southward has moved into
Central America, and has exited the basin. Isolated moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from
06N29W to 02N40W to 04N50W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from
06N53W to 08N59W. Other than the convection mentioned above,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen near the
coast of Africa from 03.5N-11N, east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, south of 25N between
83W-88W. Isolated showers and tstorms are also seen over the far
southern Bay of Campeche, south of 20N.

A surface ridge extends from just east of Apalachicola Florida to
the west-central Gulf near 26N94W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate SE winds prevail across
most of the remainder of the Gulf, except for fresh ESE in the
Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh winds are west of the
Yucatan Peninsula and near the coast of southern Texas. Seas 3-5
ft cover most of the basin, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf near
Florida.

For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
through Thu night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
trough. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western Gulf
through today. By Thu and Fri, winds will diminish as weak high
pressure settles over the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal trough will
sink southward over the SE U.S. this weekend, likely inducing
moderate SW to W winds over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for
details on a broad trough of low pressure in the SW Caribbean
later this week, and a tropical wave currently along 70W.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection stretching from the west coast of Haiti WNW to the W
tip of Cuba. This includes the waters south of Cuba. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is located in the SW Gulf,
south of 12N between 75W-84W. Isolated showers and tstorms are
over the eastern Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trade winds currently prevail over the eastern
and central Caribbean. Fresh winds are in the Windward Passage and
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate E winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are
4-6 ft across the basin, except 3-4 ft south of Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will
support moderate to fresh tradewinds through today. Winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate Thu as the high pressure weakens.
Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the SW Caribbean
through the remainder of this week in association with a broad
trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-
central Caribbean this weekend as high pressure ridging becomes
re-established along 25N over the west Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N69W.
Isolated showers and tstorms are near this feature. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extends E-W along 31N across the
entire basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 32N57W. In
the W Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are north of 26N.
Moderate to fresh trades are from 19N-26N. Fresh trades cover the
tropical Atlantic south of 19N and east of the Lesser Antilles,
where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will weaken
over the W Atlc today, allowing winds to diminish to gentle to
moderate tonight. These conditions will continue into early Fri.
Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A
frontal trough is likely to be located north of the area Fri
through the weekend. South of the frontal trough, expect fresh SW
winds north of 28N.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong N to NE winds will
continue to pulse near the Canary Islands and off the coast of
Western Sahara during the next several days, where seas will reach
7-8 ft at times.

$$
Hagen
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