[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: An area
of low pressure is expected to develop in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some gradual
development will be possible, while the system moves slowly
northwestward toward Central America. It is possible that this
weather system may produce heavy rainfall, later this week and
into the weekend, in northern Colombia, and in parts of Central
America from Honduras southward. Please, read all the bulletins,
and watch/warning information, from your local meteorological
service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is related directly
to the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is related directly
to the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W,
to 02N37W, to 04N47W, and to 08N59W along the coast of Guyana.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm on
the northern side of the ITCZ between 50W and 57W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 26W
and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, to the
coast of Mexico near 20N. A north to south oriented surface
trough is in Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong span the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the waters that are just to the
south of the Florida Panhandle, to Mexico near 21N98W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: fresh-to-strong E-to-SE
winds are within 100 nm to the north of NW Cuba between 81W and
85W...the sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet from 25N
southward from 90W eastward into the Straits of Florida.

Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night through Thu night,
off the NW Yucatan Peninsula, due to a diurnal trough. Atlantic
Ocean high pressure will cause moderate to fresh SE winds in the
Gulf of Mexico through Wed. The wind speeds will diminish by
Thursday and Friday, as weak high pressure settles in the Gulf
of Mexico. A cold front will move southward, through the SE
U.S.A. this weekend, possibly increasing the SW to W winds in
the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an ill-defined
trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
covers the area that ranges from the coastal waters of NW Cuba,
to the southern coastal waters and the coastal plains of Cuba
and Hispaniola.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A
second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in
Colombia, through 09N80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong
is within 180 nm to the south/southeast of the monsoon trough
between 72W and 76W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds
are within 75 nm to the north of the coast of Hispaniola between
70.5W and the Windward Passage...the sea heights are ranging
from 3 feet to 5 feet; Strong NE-to-E winds are within 75 nm to
the north of the coast of Honduras between 85W and 88W...the sea
heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet from 19N southward
from 85W westward; fresh to strong easterly winds are between
67W and 76W...the sea heights are reaching 6 feet from 12N to
16N between 62W and 68W...expect sea heights of at least 5 feet,
elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 60W and 83W.

A surface ridge, that is to the north of the area, will support
moderate to fresh trade winds through Wednesday. The wind speeds
will become gentle to moderate on Thursday, as the high pressure
weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in
parts of the central and SW Caribbean Sea through the remainder
of this week. The wind speeds will increase to fresh in the
south central Caribbean Sea this weekend, as a surface ridge
becomes re-established along 25N in the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N68W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
westward. A surface trough is along 32N63W 29N69W 26N70W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within a radius of 250 nm of
the surface trough.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N23W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
25N northward between Africa and 32W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward
between 18W and 30W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 300
nm to 500 nm of the coast of Africa from the Cabo Verde Islands
northward.

Broad surface easterly wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N57W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE winds are
within 60 nm on either side of 22N20W 15N31W; within 250 nm to
300 nm on either side of the line that runs from 11N40W to
10N48W, and from the line that runs from 13N50W to 13N60W. The
sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 04N to 22N between
28W and 61W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet
elsewhere from 28W eastward.

A surface ridge will prevail along 31N through tonight,
maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds to the south
of 26N. The wind speeds will become gentle to moderate, on
Wednesday night, as the surface ridge weakens and moves
southward. These conditions will continue into Friday. Fresh to
locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours
today and Wednesday. It is likely for a cold front to emerge off
the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia this weekend. South of
the front, expect SW winds to increase to fresh, north of 28N.

$$
MT/AH
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