[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern South America: A
series of tropical waves moving W across the Caribbean will
combine with the monsoon trough to enhance rainfall over portions
of Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El
Salvador and southern Honduras through Thursday. The threat of
heavy rain may persist into the weekend for portions of Central
America, as models are suggesting the possible formation of a
Central American Gyre (CAG). Please consult products from your
local or national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20/21W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm of either side of the wave axis south
of 05N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-07N between 44W-49W. An earlier ASCAT pass revealed fresh
winds associated with this wave north of 06N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is mostly inland over Venezuela and eastern Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along and within 200 nm E of the wave axis, over the
SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues SW to 06N25W to 02N37W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N37W to 03N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned above,
scattered to numerous moderate, with embedded scattered strong
convection is noted from 02S-07N between 23W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends southward from near New Orleans
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstorms
are over the NE Gulf between 26N and 30N from 88W to 85W. A
surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the west-central Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the Straits of
Florida and the western Gulf. Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted
over the NE Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft just off the Texas
coast, 3 to 5 across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through tonight. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By
midweek, E to SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high
pressure over the W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread
over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil
conditions through Fri. A cold front will sink southward over the
SE U.S. on Sat, possibly increasing SW to W winds over the NE Gulf
this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and extends SW to
Central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are flaring up southeast of the trough, between 15N and 18N from
64W to 70W. Fresh winds prevail in the Central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are in the
NW Caribbean, with gentle winds in the far SW basin. Seas are 5 to
7 ft over the most of the basin, except 3-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean, north of 18.5N.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds through Wed. Winds will
become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens.
Scattered showers and tstms are expected over portions of the
eastern and central Caribbean through today due to the combination
of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
region. The convection is expected to migrate to the SW Caribbean
mid to late week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
over the SW Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N69W.
An upper-level trough extends W-SW from a low near 21N54W to
another one near 27N70W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seem
near the first low between 26N and 28N from 69W-71W. Cloudiness
and light to moderate showers are located south of these
features.

The subtropical ridge is situated east-west along 32N across the
Atlantic Ocean, with 1027 mb high pressure centers near 32N40W
and 30N62W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail north
of 25N, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are south of
25N, over the tropical Atlantic, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through tonight, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE
trade winds south of 27N. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves
southward. Those conditions will continue through Fri night.
Fresh E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours today and Wed.
A cold front is likely to emerge off the coast of the Carolinas
and Georgia this weekend. South of the front, expect SW winds to
increase to fresh this weekend, north of 28N.

$$

Mora/Chan
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