[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern Colombia: An area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea during the next couple of days. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter while the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America. Regardless of development, this system
could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions
of Central America from Honduras southward later this week and
into the weekend. Please consult products from your local or
national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 13N southward,
moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
on either side of the wave axis south of 07N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 12N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is mostly inland over eastern Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 15N southward
into the eastern Pacific region. this wave is moving W at around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis,
particularly from 11N to 13N between 79W and 83W. The wave will
move across northern Central America on Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues SW to 06N25W to 03N37W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N37W to 01N46W. Aside from the convection mentioned
above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N-05N between 24W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate E to SE
winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity is inland over the N Gulf states. A surface
trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and drift westward across the SW Gulf where it will dissipate
during the morning hours. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each
night through Thu night near the trough.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause
moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through Wed. By Thu, E to
SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over
the W Atlantic weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the
Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil conditions
into Fri night. A cold front will sink southward over the SE U.S.
Sat, possibly increasing SW to W winds over the NE Gulf this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. See
the Tropical Waves section for more details.

An upper-level trough passes through Hispaniola, and extends SW
over the Central Caribbean. Strong SW flow ahead of the trough is
advecting mid to upper level moisture across the eastern Caribbean
into the Atlantic. The trough is also helping to induce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is noted near the southern coast of Cuba E of
Matanzas. Mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
area with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trade winds through Wed. Winds will
become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the entire forecast area with a ridge
axis near 31N. Moderate trades are noted along the southern
periphery of the ridge over the tropical Atlantic. A couple of
tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section for more details.

An upper-level low is spinning near 27N70W. A trough extends from
the low across Hispaniola into the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
showers is near the low center. Another upper-level low is
farther E near 27N53W. Some shower activity is mainly in the NE
side of the low where a surface trough is analyzed.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail along
31N through tonight, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
winds south of 27N. By Wed night, winds will become gentle to
moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves southward.
These conditions will continue into Fri night. Fresh to potentially
locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wed. A cold
front is likely to emerge off the coast of the Carolinas and
Georgia this weekend. South of the front, expect fresh SW winds.

$$
GR
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