[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rainfall in Central America and northern South America: A
series of tropical waves moving W across the Caribbean will
combine with the monsoon trough to enhance rainfall over portions
of Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El
Salvador and southern Honduras through Thursday. The threat of
heavy rain may persist into the weekend for portions of Central
America, as models are suggesting the possible formation of a
Central American Gyre (CAG). Please consult products from your
local or national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 02N-07N between 16W-27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45/46W from 12N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is along and within 270 nm E of the
wave axis from 04N-06N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is mostly inland over Venezuela. An earlier ASCAT pass
showed a surface trough associated with this wave. Moderate NE
winds precede the wave. Fresh E winds are east of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79/80W from 15N southward,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
and within 360 nm E of the wave axis, over Colombia, eastern
Panama and the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N20W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to
05.5N41W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered to
numerous moderate, with embedded scattered strong convection is
noted from 03N-06N between 27W-41W. Similar convection is from
00N-03N between 27W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 04S-01N between 35W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
showers and tstorms are over the E Gulf from 23N-29N between
85W-88W. A surface ridge extends from NE Florida into the west-
central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the
southern and western Gulf. Gentle anticyclonic winds are noted
over the NE Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin,
except less than 3 ft near the coast of Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate
to fresh SE winds in the Gulf through tonight. Fresh easterly
winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to
SE gentle to moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the
W Atlc weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of
Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil conditions through
Fri. A cold front will sink southward over the SE U.S. on Sat,
possibly increasing SW to W winds over the NE Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and extends SW to
Costa Rica. The trough is well-marked in the mid-levels, extending
from the Virgin Islands to Costa Rica. The trough is enhancing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern half of
the Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds prevail in the Central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are in the
NW Caribbean, with gentle winds in the far SW basin. Seas are 5 to
7 ft over the most of the basin, except 3-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean, north of 18.5N.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the area will
support moderate to fresh tradewinds through tonight. Winds will
become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure weakens.
Scattered showers and tstms are expected over portions of the
eastern and central Caribbean through today due to the combination
of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing the
region. The convection is expected to migrate to the SW Caribbean
mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N69W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 24N-29N between 68W-
72W. Another upper-level low is near 28N54W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are from 22N-30N between 49W-58W. A third upper-level low
is near 26N26W. Cloudiness and possible light showers are located
to the east of this upper-low.

The subtropical ridge is situated east-west along 32N across the
Atlantic Ocean, with 1026 mb high pressure centers near 32N39W and
33N52W. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 29N, with 3-5
ft seas. Moderate trades prevail from 24N-29N, with 4-6 ft seas.
Fresh trades are farther south, over the tropical Atlantic, where
seas are 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through today, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE
trade winds south of 27N. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves
southward. Those conditions will continue through Fri. Fresh E
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and evening hours today. A cold front is
likely to emerge off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia this
weekend. South of the front, expect SW winds to increase to fresh
this weekend, north of 28N.

$$
Hagen
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