[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The monsoon trough, a tropical wave, and an upper level trough
will help to enhance rainfall from southern Nicaragua to Costa
Rica, to Colombia, and to NW Venezuela, during the next few
days. Please, read all the bulletins, and watch/warning
information, from your local meteorological service, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 03N to 05N between 17W and 19W, at the
southern end of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is related directly
to the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward, to inland
sections of Guyana, Venezuela, and eastern  Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of
the tropical wave, from 16N southward. The monsoon trough passes
through 11N74W in Colombia, through 09N80W in Panama, beyond
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in Colombia, and in the southern coastal waters of Colombia
along the Pacific Ocean coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N20W, and to 06N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N28W, to 05N40W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ between 20W and 30W, and within 285 nm to
the south of the ITCZ between 33W and 42W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the northern Gulf of Mexico,
between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, to the coast of
Mexico near 23N between 97W and 98W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the NE
coast of Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the
lower Texas Gulf coast.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: fresh-to-strong E-to-SE
winds are from 25N southward from 90W eastward, and including
within 90 nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The
sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet. The sea heights are
reaching six feet from 24N northward from 92W westward.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will cause moderate to fresh SE
winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night through Wed night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
in association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle
to moderate winds are expected as the Western Atlantic Ocean
high pressure weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the
Gulf of Mexico late in the week, maintaining tranquil conditions
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and it
continues to southern Nicaragua/northern Costa Rica.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
covers the area that is within 420 nm to the southeast of the
line that runs from Hispaniola to northern Costa Rica.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm on either side of
the tropical wave, from 16N southward. The monsoon trough passes
through 11N74W in Colombia, through 09N80W in Panama, beyond
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in Colombia, and in the southern coastal waters of Colombia
along the Pacific Ocean coast.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Fresh-to-strong NE-to-E
winds are from 18N southward between 58W and 63W...the sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet; from Hispaniola and Jamaica
southward between 71W and 81W...the sea heights are ranging from
6 feet to 8 feet; and from 20N southward from 85W westward...the
sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet.

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over the central
Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight. High
pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will become gentle to moderate by midweek as the high pressure
weakens. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over parts of
the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves that are
traversing the region. The convection is expected to migrate to
the SW Caribbean mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N55W, about
620 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. A surface trough is along 30N63W
23N64W 16N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N to
30N between 50W and 58W.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N27W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is directly related
to the cyclonic center.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward, from the 30N63W 16N65W surface trough
eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 33N56W. A 1029
mb high pressure center is near 32N40W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds
are within 420 nm on either side of the line that runs from
23N26W, 18N36W, 13N49W, to 13N60W. The sea heights in that area
are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet.

High pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue,
maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of
the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
moderate as the high pressure weakens and the ridge moves
southward. These conditions will continue through Fri. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tue
evening. A cold front may emerge off the coast of the
Carolinas and Georgia this weekend. This could slightly increase
winds and seas offshore northern Florida.

$$
mt
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