[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 11N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis south of
08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are within 180 nm
either side of the wave axis from 07N-09N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is
enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong
convection is south of 13N between 72W-81W, including over NW
Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16 to 08N19W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from
06N25W to 04N33W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N35W
to 07N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section
above, scattered strong convection is from 02N-10N between 11W-
24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida
to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east
of 88W.

Fresh E to SE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S
winds are in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are
occurring in both locations. Moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are
elsewhere.

High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh
SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to
moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc
weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico
late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with
slight winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W. See above.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to
Costa Rica. Isolated moderate convection covers the area that is
from Jamaica northward between the Windward Passage and the
western tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE
side of the upper-trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border.

Fresh to strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh trades elsewhere over the central Caribbean as well as the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean.
Moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean, north of 19N. Seas
are 8-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the
remainder of the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High
pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high
pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is
expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing
the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the
central and SW Caribbean mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about
550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the
upper-low to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is from
23N-28N between 55W-58W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base of the trough,
between the upper-low and Hispaniola.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N30W,
about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible
light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the
Canary Islands.

The subtropical ridge extends from a 1028 mb high near 33N38W
westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Fresh trade winds
are mainly south of 24N across the basin. Gentle anticyclonic
winds are north of 29N. In the far east Atlantic, fresh to strong
N to NE winds prevail off the coast of Mauritania. Seas are 7-9 ft
stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 21N. Seas are
3-6 ft from 25N-31N.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will
become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage late this afternoon and this evening.

$$
Hagen
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