[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa
and is currently analyzed along 16W from 13N southward. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave
axis is from 03N-09N between 05W-19W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection associated with the wave axis is from 01S-07N between
30W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within
150 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N-10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. The monsoon trough passes through Panama and is
enhancing convection ahead of the wave. Scattered strong
convection is south of 12N between 73W-82W, including over NW
Colombia and Panama. Expect heavy rain to affect portions of NW
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Wed.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16 to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to
04N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N41W to 03N51W.
Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 23W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from east of northern Florida
to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms are occurring over the eastern Gulf, mainly east
of 86W.

ASCAT data from this morning reveals fresh E winds within the
Straits of Florida. Fresh SE to S winds are in the west- central
Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in both locations.
Moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere.

High pressure over the Atlc will cause moderate to locally fresh
SE winds in the Gulf through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. By midweek, E to SE gentle to
moderate winds are expected as high pressure over the W Atlc
weakens. Weak high pressure will spread over the Gulf of Mexico
late in the week, maintaining tranquil weather conditions with
slight winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W. See above.

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola and extends SW to
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers are seen on the SE side of
the upper- trough extending from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands SW to the Venezuela/Colombia border.

Fresh to strong trades are in the central and south-central
Caribbean, with fresh trades within the Windward passage and over
the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the E Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the remainder of the central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. High
pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high
pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is
expected in the east-central Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves traversing
the region. The enhanced showers and storms will migrate to the
central and SW Caribbean mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about
550 nm SE of Bermuda. An upper-level trough extends from the
upper-low to Hispaniola. A surface trough below the upper-level
trough extends from 30N57W to 23N58W. Isolated showers remain
within 70 nm west of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence seen in water vapor imagery is located in the base
of the upper trough, between the upper- low and Hispaniola.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N29W,
about 650 nm W of the Canary Islands. Cloudiness and possible
light showers are east of the this upper-low, extending to the
Canary Islands.

The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high near 33N38W
westward to the east coast of northern Florida. Scatterometer data
from this morning reveals gentle to moderate trade winds north of
25N with fresh trade winds mainly south of 25N across the basin. Seas
are 7-9 ft stretching across the tropical Atlantic, south of 25N.
Seas are 3-6 ft from 25N-31N.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging will prevail
along 31N through Tue, maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE trade
winds across most of the forecast waters. By midweek, winds will
become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage late this afternoon and end overnight.

$$
Mora
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