[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 07 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 11N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 01N to 05N between 13W and 20W, and from 01N to 07N between
28W and 44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 15N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 420 nm to the east of
the wave, and within 330 nm to the west of the wave, from 15N
southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon
trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, through 08N81W in
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered strong is from 05N to 11N
between the tropical wave and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 12N16, to 09N17W, to 07N20W, and 06N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N25W, to 04N31W, 05N35W, 06N44W, 07N53W, and
07N58W near the coast of Guyana. Precipitation: numerous strong
is within 45 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within
75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 22W.
Scattered strong is from 02N to 07N between 11W and 14W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 05N between
13W and 20W, and from 01N to 07N between 28W and 44W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of
Oklahoma, just to the north of Texas. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes from 29N79W just to the NW Bahamas,
across Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers, from central Florida northward,
have been weakening and dissipating with time.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: fresh-to-strong SE
winds are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 83W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet.

An upper level low in Texas will continue to enhance scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the north central Gulf of Mexico
this evening. Otherwise, high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean
will cause moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf
through Tue night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
through Tue night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association
with a diurnal trough. E to SE gentle to moderate winds are
expected by the middle of the week, as W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, and it
continues to Nicaragua/Costa Rica.  Precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the area that is from Jamaica northward between
Hispaniola and the Yucatan Channel, on the SE side of the upper
level trough from 12N southward between 77W and Nicaragua.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon
trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, through 08N81W in
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered strong is from 05N to 11N
between the tropical wave and 80W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds
are from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 66W and
81W...the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet; within
90 nm to the north of the coast of Hispaniola between 70W and
the Windward Passage...the sea heights are ranging from 6 feet
to 7 feet.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the south central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night. Fresh
to strong E winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage during
the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night. High
pressure ridging north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through Tue night. Winds
will diminish to gentle to moderate by midweek as the high
pressure weakens. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is
expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of an upper-level trough and tropical waves
traversing the region. The enhanced showers and storms will
migrate to the central and SW Caribbean mid to late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N57W, about
570 nm to the SE of Bermuda. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 135 nm of the center. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 240 nm to
760 nm to the WSW of the center.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N30W,
about 730 nm to the west of the Canary Islands. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is within 210 nm of the center in the eastern
semicircle, and within 240 nm to 300 nm of the center in the
western semicircle. No significant deep convective precipitation
is directly related to the cyclonic center.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 18N northward. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near
34N40W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds
are within 270 nm on either side of the line that runs from
21N17W at the coast of Mauritania, to 18N32W 16N43W, 12N54W and
11N60W.
The sea heights in that area are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet.

High pressure ridging will prevail along 31N through Tue. This
will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most
of the forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will
become gentle to moderate as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to
strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon
night.

$$
mt/AH
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