[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 04 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 12N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No
significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to
the tropical wave. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is near Trinidad/Tobago and
Venezuela from 09N to 11N between 61W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is directly related
to the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N16W, and 04N24W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N24W, to 05N35W, 04N38W, 05N48W, 09N57W, and 09N61W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to 09N
between 10W and 14W. Scattered moderate to strong is near
Trinidad/Tobago and Venezuela from 09N to 11N between 61W and
63W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through SW Louisiana to the coastal
plains of the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas, from 25N northward from 91W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean that is between 70W and 80W, to SE Cuba and
Jamaica, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers Florida and its
coastal waters.

A surface ridge passes from the NW Bahamas, across Florida, to
the east central Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure ridging will persist in the forecast waters
through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each
night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a
diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through early next week. An upper level low over Texas
will enhance convection in the NW Gulf of Mexico, from Friday
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean that is between 70W and 80W, to SE Cuba and
Jamaica, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that
includes Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W
in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N
to 06N between 68W and 71W, and from 04N to 08N between 73W and
76W in Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE winds are
within 180 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between
69W and 75W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The sea heights
are reaching 7 feet from 130 nm to 190 nm to the north of Panama
between 77W and 79W. The sea heights are reaching 6 feet within
390 nm to the north of the coasts of Venezuela, Colombia, and
Panama between 70W and 81W. The sea heights are reaching 5 feet
in the remainder of the area that is from 19N southward between
64W and 83W. Strong easterly winds are within 75 nm of the coast
of Honduras between 85W and 87W. The sea heights are ranging
from 3 feet to 4 feet.

The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Elsewhere,
high pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to
fresh
trade winds in much of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean that is between 70W and 80W, to SE Cuba and
Jamaica, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that
includes Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 17N northward. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near
35N52W. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 36N29W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: Strong NE-to-E winds
are within 100 nm of the Atlantic Ocean coast of Hispaniola
between 70W and the Windward Passage. The sea heights in that
are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet. Strong NE winds are to the
west of Africa from 18N to 24N between 18W and 25W. The sea
heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet in that area.
Fresh-to-strong easterly winds are from 08N to 12N between 58W
and 61W, to the east of Trinidad/Tobago and Venezuela. The sea
heights are ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet in that area.

High pressure will prevail north of the area through the
remainder of the week. This will support moderate to fresh E to
SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters through Mon.
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours for the next several
days.

$$
mt/era
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