[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 17W, from 09N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted between 15W to 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N-11N between 37W-43W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the ABC Islands westward to the Gulf
of Venezuela.

The axis of tropical wave is near 81W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is
noted in the Caribbean along the coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W and continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. Segments of
the ITCZ are analyzed from 04N24W to 04N37W, and from 04N43W to
the coast of Venezuela near 07N53W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 01N to
06N and E of 11W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of
the tropical wave from 00N to 09N between 20W to 23W. The latest
scatterometer data shows strong winds within this area of
convection. Scattered moderate convection is present in the
vicinity of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the W Gulf, a surface trough is located from the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico near 19N95W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring with this trough. Another surface trough
extends along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Showers are
noted with this feature along the Louisiana coast westward to
Brownsville, Texas. Across the Gulf, surface ridging supports
gentle to moderate SE winds. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the central
Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds
will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in
association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected elsewhere through Wed. An upper-level low over
Texas will continue to enhance convection over the NW Gulf waters
tonight and spread to the north-central Gulf by Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portions of two tropical waves are impacting the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details.

An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and
western Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to
locally strong trade winds from the coast of Colombia to 15N,
where seas are 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds with seas of
4-7 ft are noted in the remainder of basin, except in the NW
Caribbean where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over
the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun
night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north of the area will
continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of
the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek, trade winds
will be gentle to moderate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by several high pressures north of the
discussion area. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
the eastern coast of Florida associated with afternoon sea
breezy activity that has moved offshore this evening. Scattered
showers are seen from the northern Bahamas to 31N. Moderate to
locally strong NE winds are noted near the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds veer from NE in the eastern
Atlantic, to E in the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas.
West of 70W, seas are 4-6 ft. East of 70W, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area
through the weekend and into early next week. This will support
moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast
waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to
moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon.


$$
Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net