[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 18W to 25W. The wave
is primarily monitored via 700 mb GFS-based trough diagnostics.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. The system has no
significant convection this evening. A surface trough was noted in
the scatterometer pass.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. The system has no
significant convection this evening. The wave is primarily
monitored via 700 mb GFS-based trough diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 14N17W to
04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to coastal Brazil near
02N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N
and 08N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection exists north of 02N and east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge extends along the coast of SE United
States, contributing toward generally light to gentle winds across
the Gulf. The exception is just north and west of Yucatan, where
NE to E winds are moderate to fresh in association with the
diurnal trough. Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 2-4 ft in the
central and W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted north
of 28N west of 88W and south of 20N west of 90W in association
with a vigorous upper-level trough.

High pressure ridging will persist across the forecast waters
through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will pulse each
night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal
trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere
through Wed. An upper-level low over Texas will continue to
enhance convection over the NW Gulf waters tonight and spread to
the north-central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portions of a tropical wave is impacting the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details.

A N-S pressure gradient between ridging near 30N and a 1008 mb
Colombian Low is contributing toward a NE to E strong breeze over
S central Caribbean as well as in the over the Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere the E trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 6-7 ft over
the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the W Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
over the E Caribbean. Scattered showers are occurring south of 13N
and east of 65W in association with an upper-level trough
interacting with a tropical wave.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly over the south central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Elsewhere,
high pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through
early next week. By midweek, gentle to moderate trade winds will
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High is near 36N27W with ridging
extending west-southwestward to the Georgia-Florida border near
30N81W. The N-S pressure gradient between the high and lower
pressure with the ITCZ is causing strong E trades just north of
Hispaniola, strong NE winds just west of NW Africa north of 13N
east of 27W, and fresh to moderate NE to E trades elsewhere. Seas
are 8-9 ft just west of NW Africa and 4-7 ft elsewhere. A surface
trough is contributing toward scattered showers from 25N-31N
between 30W-36W. Aside from convection associated with the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, no significant deep convection is present.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will
support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle
to moderate. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Mon.

For the forecast east of 65W, a weakening Bermuda-Azores High will
allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise,
seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N
Atlantic by Mon.

$$ Landsea
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