[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-10N between 32W-42W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 11N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 59W and 63W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 81W, from 14N southward, moving
westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted
in the Caribbean along the coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. Segments of
the ITCZ are analyzed from 04N24W to 05N37W, and from 05N41W to
the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from
01N to 09N between 13W and 22W. The latest scatterometer data
shows strong winds within this area of convection. Scattered
moderate convection is present near the ITCZ from 06N to 10N
between 42W and 63W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the W Gulf, a surface trough is located from the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring with this trough. As of 1500 UTC, a 1014
mb mesoscale low is located just off the Texas coast near
28N96W, where another surface trough extends along the Texas and
Louisiana coastlines. Showers are noted with this feature along
the Louisiana coast. Across the Gulf, surface ridging supports
gentle to moderate SE winds. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the central
Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through early next week. An upper-level low over Texas
will enhance convection over the NW Gulf waters today and spread
to the north-central Gulf by Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portions of two tropical waves are impacting the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details.

An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and
western Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to
locally strong trade winds from the coast of Colombia to 15N,
where seas are 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds with seas of
4-7 ft are noted in the remainder of basin, except in the NW
Caribbean where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean in addition to the Gulf of Honduras for
the next several nights. Elsewhere, the ridge of high pressure north
of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds
across much of the Caribbean through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by several high pressures north of the
discussion area. Moderate to locally strong NE winds are noted
near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds veer
from NE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in the central Atlantic, to
SE near the Bahamas. West of 70W, seas are 4-6 ft. East of 70W,
seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the weekend and into early next week. This will
support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N
of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the
next several days.

$$
Mahoney
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