[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N-09N between 31W-36W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 11N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 10N between 60W-65W.

The axis of tropical wave is near 80W, from 13N southward, moving
westward at around 5-10 kt. Scatted moderate convection is noted
from 06N-11N between 79W-83W, with additional showers and
thunderstorms inland over much of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N13W and
continues over the E Atlantic to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
04N24W to 05N36W, and from 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N-09N between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted
elsewhere in the vicinity of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues prevails across the basin. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds in the S Gulf veer to southerly in the N
Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are noted in the W Gulf, with 1-3 ft seas
elsewhere. A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection across
the northern half of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters through early next week. Fresh easterly winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through early next week. An upper-level low over Texas
will enhance convection over the NW gulf waters today and spread
across the basin through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portions of two tropical waves are extending across
the basin. Please refer to the section above for details.

An upper level trough extends over the Windward Passage and
western Caribbean. The trough is enhancing convection across Cuba
and adjacent waters. Recent observations depict moderate to fresh
trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are reported to
be 5-8 ft. Mainly moderate trade winds are noted in the remainder
of the basin, except gentle to moderate north of 18N. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next several nights. Elsewhere, high
pressure ridge north of the area will continue supporting moderate
to fresh tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the
Azores near 34N54W, another 1029 mb high near 34N36W, and a 1030
mb high centered near 37N24W. Gentle to moderate winds, locally
strong west of 55W, veer from NNE in the eastern Atlantic, to E in
the central Atlantic, to SE near the Bahamas. West of 65W, seas
are 4-6 ft, and 4-7 ft east of 65W.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast
waters through Mon. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours for the
next several days.

$$
ERA
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