[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W/29W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-10N between 19W-32W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W/42W, from 10N southward,
moving westward 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N-07N between 39W-41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N-10N between 54W-56W

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W/71W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at around 5 kt. Any associated convection is
inland over western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N25W.
It resumes from 05N31W to 05N38W, then resumes again from 05N43W
to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-03N
between 11W-19W, from 02N-06N between 32W-37W, from 06N-08N
between 44W-47W, and from 07N-10N between 50W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the W Gulf, a surface trough is sustaining an area of
moderate convection from 21N-27N west of 96W. Elsewhere, high
pressure prevails. Winds are light to gentle, with seas of 2-4 ft
throughout the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through the end of the week. This weekend, a surface
trough near the coast of Texas may bring fresh SE winds to
portions of the NW Gulf along with increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over Cuba is producing scattered moderate
convection from Jamaica to across Cuba, the Cayman Islands, as
well as across portions of Hispaniola. Showers and moderate
convection are also observed over the SW Caribbean, with deep
convection also noted over northern Colombia and western Venezuela.
High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure
over Colombia is supporting fresh winds over the south central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are
over the NW Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean,
2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon. A tropical
wave will cross the Windward Islands Fri and move through the E
Caribbean Fri night and Sat, enhancing showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the W Atlantic, scattered moderate convection associated with
an upper level low is noted from Cuba to across the Bahamas, with
additional activity near the Florida peninsula. A weakening cold
front extends from 31N17W to 26N39W to 29N46W. Earlier ASCAT data
showed fresh to strong winds north of the front, which have likely
diminished to moderate to fresh. High pressure prevails elsewhere
across the forecast waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail throughout the rest of the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across
the basin, except 6-8 ft north of the cold front.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours Thu through Sat.

$$
Lewitsky
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