[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W/31W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 24W and 27W.

There was little evidence of the tropical wave axis previously
noted near 41W/42W, and it was not included on the 00 UTC
analysis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this tropical wave.

The tropical wave previously located near 70W has been relocated
at 00 UTC to near 75W, from 13N southward, moving westward at
around 5 kt. Thunderstorms remain active over the border of
Venezuela and Colombia, and over Lake Maracaibo. This is probably
related to local effects and divergence aloft on the southeast
side of an upper trough just west of the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near
12N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 10N20W to
07N25W, and from 03N35W to 03N51W. Other than the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is active from 02N to 04N between 15W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1017
mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W, to the
central coast of Texas. Farther south, weak troughing is noted
from the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to southwest
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted over
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, west of the trough.
Gentle to moderate easterly breezes persist elsewhere, with 1 to 3
ft seas in most areas. Smoke from forecast fires and agricultural
burning may be limiting visibility slightly off the southern coast
of Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. A few showers are noted on
coastal radars off the west coast of Florida, but otherwise not
significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will persist across the
forecast waters this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association
with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
expected elsewhere through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over southeast Cuba is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the Windward Passage, between southeast
Haiti and eastern Cuba. A few showers are also noted between
central Panama and southeast Nicaragua, mainly due to trade wind
convergence. Ship observations and a recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds off the coast
of central Colombia, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft
seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south central Caribbean the next few nights. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge dominates the tropical and subtropical North
Atlantic, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure centered west the
Azores. This pattern is supporting generally moderate E to NE
winds west of 35W, except for moderate to fresh winds pulsing off
the north coast of Hispaniola, and south of 15N. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft west of 35W. Farther east, a weakening cold
front is analyzed from Spain to the Canary Islands, then westward
to 25N30W. Fresh NE winds winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident
north of this boundary. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NE
winds are noted, except for fresh N winds off Mauritania, with 5
to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the
forecast waters through Mon. Fresh to locally strong E winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat.
Elsewhere west of 35W, little change is expected.

$$
Christensen
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