[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 09N between 23W and 34W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 11N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No convection is noted in
the vicinity of the tropical wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N16W to
05N25W. It resumes from 05N28W to 05N39W, then resumes again from
05N42W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N
between 50W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the W Gulf, a surface trough is sustaining an area of
moderate convection from 22N to 25N along 96W. Elsewhere, high
pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Winds are gentle, with
seas of 2-4 ft throughout the Gulf.

High pressure ridging will persist across the
Gulf of Mexico this week. Fresh northeast to east winds will
pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with
a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected
elsewhere through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over Cuba is producing scattered moderate
convection from Jamaica to E Cuba. Showers and moderate
convection are also observed over the SW Caribbean. High
pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the NW
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south
central Caribbean tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across much of the Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the W Atlantic, scattered moderate convection associated with
an upper level low is noted between Cuba and the Bahamas. A cold
front extends from 31N19W to 26N37W to 28N45W. The latest ASCAT
data shows fresh to strong winds north of the front. High
pressure prevails elsewhere across the forecast waters. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola with moderate
to locally fresh winds prevailing throughout the rest of the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will prevail north of
the area through the remainder of the week. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds across much of the
forecast waters through Sun.

$$
Mahoney
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