[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 060306
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ159-160-061115-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
1106 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Tropical Storm Elsa has emerged into the Gulf of Mexico**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Brooks, Coastal
      Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Lafayette, Lowndes, and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Dixie and
      Inland Taylor
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 500 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 460
      miles south-southeast of Apalachicola
    - 23.5N 82.3W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will pass near the Lower Keys later tonight,
then track roughly parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
through late Tuesday night. Elsa is forecast to make landfall as a
strong tropical storm somewhere along the Southeast Big Bend around
Wednesday morning. Conditions could begin to deteriorate across
Apalachee Bay and the Southeast Big Bend as early as Tuesday evening.

Tropical storm force winds are possible across the Southeast Big Bend
and could cause downed tree limbs, power outages, and loose items
blown around. A storm surge of around 2 to 4 feet is forecast across
coastal areas from Ochlocknee River to Aucilla River and 3 to 5 feet
eastward to the Suwannee River. These values remain heavily dependent
on any track and intensity changes. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts near 5 to 6 inches will be possible with Elsa. This
rainfall could cause some localized flooding issues across the
Southeast Big Bend. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible
across the far Southeast Big Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of the Big Bend and South-Central Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Eastern Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Western Apalachee Bay.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Eastern Big Bend and portions of
South-Central Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts elsewhere across the area.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across far Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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