[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 052135
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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 22
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
535 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Lower and Middle
 Keys**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been cancelled for Monroe Upper
      Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles south of Key West FL
    - 22.7N 81.9W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 40
miles southeast of Havana, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move
across western Cuba this evening, emerge into the Straits of Florida
around midnight, then move north northwest into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico as a tropical storm late tonight into Tuesday. The track
forecast has not changed appreciably since the 1100 AM advisory, and
our confidence in the track forecast remains high. Conditions will
deteriorate across the Florida Keys later this evening.

The risk for multiple weather hazards continues for the Florida Keys,
including heavy rainfall, tropical storm force winds, mainly in
squalls, isolated tornadoes, treacherous marine conditions, and coastal
flooding. These hazards will extend well to the east of the center of
circulation and beyond the edge of the track cone. Tropical storm
conditions will spread across the Lower and Middle Keys later this
evening and continue through Tuesday morning. Conditions will
gradually improve Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Fast moving and frequent squalls will result in difficult driving
conditions on the Overseas Highway during the peak of Elsa, especially
in the Lower Keys from the west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.

The threat for heavy rainfall has increased since the last forecast
advisory. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches, may cause significant flooding. Heavy rainfall
will be exacerbated Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

Coastal flooding 1 foot higher than our recent high tides, along with
overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Keys from this
evening through Tuesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Minor damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and
      unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown
      about.
    - Some large tree limbs broken off.
    - Isolated power outages.

Elsewhere across the Florida Keys, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots exposed to the Atlantic side
      may be inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in
      places where surge water covers the road.
    - Minor beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Florida Keys, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      in low-lying spots and poor drainage areas. Some streets and
      parking lots take on moving water as storm drains. Driving
      conditions become hazardous.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuation directives have been announced.

Monroe County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors who
are in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-
aboard vessels and mobile homes to relocate to a safe structure for
the duration of the storm.

Visitors in conventional lodging facilities should remain indoors
until the storm clears the region.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
  monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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