[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 050905
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-051615-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
505 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**ELSA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Upper Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles south-southeast of Key West FL
    - 21.0N 79.9W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 50
miles south of the southern coast of central Cuba. There has been no
change in the intensity of Elsa during the past six hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will move across central and western
Cuba today, emerge into the Straits of Florida this evening, then pass
west of Key West while moving north northwest into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm tonight into Tuesday. Confidence in
the track forecast remains high, while the intensity of Elsa after it
emerges from Cuba remains uncertain. Conditions will deteriorate across
the Florida Keys late this afternoon and tonight.

The risk for multiple weather hazards continues for the Florida Keys,
including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding, heavy
rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions. These
hazards will extend well to the east of the center of circulation of
Elsa and beyond the edge of the track cone. Tropical storm conditions
are most likely to arrive this evening and continue through Tuesday
morning, with conditions gradually improving Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Fast moving and frequent squalls with blinding downpours and strong
winds of tropical storm force will cause driving on the Overseas
Highway and other roads in Monroe County to be challenging during the
impact of Elsa, especially in the Lower Keys from the west end of
Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding, including areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

Coastal flooding 1 to 2 feet higher than our recent high tides, along
with overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible. These
peak water levels can be considered a reasonable worst case scenario.

An isolated tornado or two will be possible across the Florida Keys
from this evening into Tuesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Middle and Upper Keys.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuation directives have been announced.

Monroe County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors who
are in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-
aboard vessels and mobile homes to either leave the Keys as early as
possible this morning or relocate to a safe structure for the duration
of the storm.

Visitors in conventional lodging facilities who are planning to leave
today are urged to depart as early as possible. Visitors who stay
should remain indoors until the storm clears the region.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the
storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Jacobson
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