[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052021
513 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers East Central Florida

**A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE COUNTY**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 550 miles south of Leesburg FL
    - 21.0N 79.9W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move across Cuba later today, near
the lower Florida Keys tonight and be over eastern Gulf of Mexico
offshore southwest Florida by Tuesday morning. Elsa will then turn
north and northeast, crossing the north-central Florida peninsula on
Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Lake County, which is
where the highest potential exists for experiencing sustained tropical
storm force winds up to 40 mph. Other areas along and north of
Interstate 4 should keep a close eye on the track of Elsa, as a
rightward shift in the track could bring sustained tropical storm force
winds closer to Orange, Seminole, northwest Osceola and inland Volusia
Counties. Listen for potential changes to the forecast.

Elsa's impacts will begin to be felt across east central Florida
Tuesday through Tuesday night as the system is moving north and
parallel to the Florida west coast, and well before the center makes
landfall near the Florida Big Bend.

Outer rain bands from Elsa will begin to impact Central Florida by mid
day Tuesday, increasing in frequency and intensity as the center makes
its closest approach to our area. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are
possible, with isolated higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The highest
rainfall totals are expected to be closest to the track of Elsa's
center, over and adjacent to Lake County.

Additionally, these rain bands will likely produce wind gusts to
tropical storm force, possibly as high as 50 to 60 mph in the most
intense bands. A few tornadoes are also possible as the environment
becomes increasingly favorable for rotating storms.

Outside of rain bands breezy to windy conditions will start to develop
across the area early Tuesday afternoon and spreading from south to
north through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

It is important to note that some uncertainty remains with both the
forecast track, intensity and size of Elsa as it will interact with
Cuba later today and tonight. Changes to the forecast could impact
both the degree and areal extent of impacts, especially if Elsa
becomes stronger and tracks more eastward than forecast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida, particularly Lake County and
areas near the Kissimmee River.


. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Lake
County, possibly extending to the Interstate 4 corridor in Volusia,
Seminole and Orange Counties.

. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the
storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a mobile home, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or near an
already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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