[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 050849
HLSTAE
FLZ028-029-034-128-134-051700-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
449 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Southeast Big Bend**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie,
      Coastal Taylor, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, and Lafayette

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal
      Taylor, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, and Lafayette

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 720 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 680
      miles south-southeast of Apalachicola
    - 21.0N 79.9W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to cross Cuba and enter the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later today. Elsa is forecast to move northward roughly
parallel to the Florida Peninsula before approaching the SE Big Bend
and Nature Coast Tuesday night. Elsa is currently forecast to make
landfall as a tropical storm somewhere along the Nature Coast sometime
around Wednesday morning. Conditions could begin to deteriorate across
the SE Big Bend as early as Tuesday evening.

Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the SE Big Bend and
could cause downed tree limbs, power outages, and loose items blown
around. A Storm Surge of around 1 to 3 feet will be possible across
Apalachee Bay but will remain heavily dependent on any track and
intensity changes. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
near 5 to 6 inches will be possible with Elsa. This rainfall could
cause some localized flooding issues across the SE Big Bend. An
isolated tornado or two will also be possible across the far SE Big
Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across Western Big Bend and Southwest Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts elsewhere across the region.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.



* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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