[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
near Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft
north of Colombia tonight through Sunday morning. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from 31N66W to
the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Areas of gale-force
southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N
Sunday night through early Tue. Seas associated with the front
will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 06N10W to 05N16W where it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 03N31W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon trough from
00N-08N between 05W-18W. An additional area of scattered
moderate convection is noted within 70 nm of the ITCZ between
20W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high
pressure over the Carolinas spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Seas range 3-6 ft with larger swell in the western Gulf.

The broad high pressure will shift eastward through tonight.
Southerly winds will increase over the western Gulf of Mexico
later today ahead of a  strong cold front that will move off the
Texas coast Sunday. The front will move quickly across the basin
Sunday through Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
prevail across the region Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
Wednesday into Wednesday night, along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
approaching 20 feet in some areas.

A stationary front replaces the dissipating cold front and
stretches northeastward from the E coast of Hispaniola near
19N68W into the Atlantic. An ASCAT pass from 1242 UTC revealed
fresh to strong east winds near the southern end of this
boundary over the waters adjacent to the southern coast of
Hispaniola. Isolated showers associated with the front are north
of the Leeward Islands. East of the stationary front, a weak
surface trough extends from 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean to
16N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, deep-layer dry air is
maintaining generally fair weather conditions with moderate to
fresh trades across the rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with
gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia late tonight
and again late on Sun night. Large long-period northerly swell
will propagate through the northeastern Caribbean passages and
into the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the rest of this
weekend and into early next week, with the largest swell
expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is forecast to
reach the Yucatan Channel on Mon, and extend from the Dominican
Republic to the central Caribbean by late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 32N42W to 24N53W and continues as a
stationary front to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.
Moderate west winds are behind the front, increasing to fresh to
strong north of 28N. Isolated showers are within 60 nm on either
side of the front. Large swell reaching up to 21 ft is behind
the front. Winds transition to anticyclonic flow west of 65W due
to the high pressure centered over the Carolinas. Elsewhere,
broad surface anticyclonic flow spans the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The stationary front over the far southeastern waters will
weaken and gradually dissipate through early on Mon. Large long-
period northerly swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will
subside a little through Mon. Another strong cold front will
move east of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from
near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by Tue evening. Gale force
southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of
about 27N. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front
will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
while combining with residual swell.


$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net