[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the
low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds
near Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft
north of Colombia tonight through Sunday morning. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from 31N66W to the
Dominican Republic by late Tue. Areas of gale-force southerly
winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N Sunday
night through early Tue. Seas associated with the front will
quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to
01N26W to 04N31W to 02N35W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 21W and 36W.
Moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 06N east of 15W near
the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high pressure
over the Carolinas spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The broad high
pressure will shift eastward through tonight. Southerly winds will
increase over the western Gulf of Mexico later today ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sunday. The
front will quickly move across the basin Sunday through Monday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region
Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will
develop over the western Gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night, along
with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines
of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights
approaching 20 feet in some areas.

A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of
the Dominican Republic, then south of Jamaica, to 17N87W near the
Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are associated with the front.

A weak surface trough passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean
to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds, and a few showers are associated with the trough axis. The
monsoon trough is inland along the northern coast of Colombia.

The front in the NW Caribbean will drift southward then dissipate
later today. Strong high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tuesday, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters this
weekend, with the largest swell expected tonight through Sun
night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on
Monday, and extend from the Dominican Republic to the central
Caribbean by late Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N43W to 19N68W in the eastern part
of the Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds
and isolated embedded showers are within 60 nm on either side of
the front. Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the cold front.

The cold front will stall and weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico
through Sun. Large northerly swell associated with the front will
affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Monday.
Another strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late
Sunday night, then reach from 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by
late Tuesday. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected
ahead of this front north of 27N. Seas associated with the front
will quickly build over the forecast waters Monday and Tuesday.

$$
Mundell
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