[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The 30-hour forecast, starting at
30/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale-
force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet,
from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W,
to 03N20W, 02N26W, 03N30W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 04N between
02W and 10W, and from 01N to 02N between 32W and 35W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from
40W eastward, and from 10N southward between 47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure across the area will shift eastward through
Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase in the western
Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, in advance of a strong cold
front that will move off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front
will move quickly across the basin, from Sunday through Monday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region
from Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds
will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large northerly swell across the west, hitting the Bahamas and
the NE Caribbean Sea islands tonight, will cause potential
coastal flooding and very high surf, with sea heights close to
20 feet.

A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of
the Dominican Republic, to the southern coastal waters of
Jamaica, to 17N87W about 120 nm to the ENE of the Gulf of
Honduras.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from the dissipating front northward
from the Dominican Republic westward.

A surface trough passes through 21N59W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
18N62W in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 13N64W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are elsewhere within 210 nm to the
northwest and to the north of the line 21N57W 16N62W 13N66W
13N74W.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
the border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from
75W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The current weakening cold front, from Hispaniola across Jamaica
to 17N87W, will drift southward and dissipate overnight. Strong
high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.
Gale-force wind conditions are expected near the coast of
Colombia on Saturday night and early Sunday. Large
northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean Sea
passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected from Saturday night
through Sunday night. A cold front is forecast to reach the
Yucatan Channel on Monday, and extend
from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean Sea by late
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N46W to 28N50W 22N60W, to the
eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. The front is
dissipating as it continues westward from the eastern sections
of the Dominican Republic toward the Gulf of Honduras.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are within 60 nm on either side of the
front, in the Atlantic Ocean. Gale-force winds are associated
with this front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the cold front.

The current cold front from 24N55W to Hispaniola will stall and
weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico through Sunday. Large
northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of
the waters to the east of the Bahamas through Monday. Another
strong cold front will move offshore northern Florida late on
Sunday night, and then reach from near 31N66W to the Dominican
Republic by late Tuesday. Strong to near gale-force southerly
winds are expected ahead of this front to the north of 27N. Seas
associated with the front will build quickly in the forecast
waters from Monday through Tuesday.

$$
mt/dm
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