[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system
resides north of the area with a cold front trailing into the
subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W. Gales are occurring on both
sides of the front, mainly N of 28N between 45W and 64W. This
area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front
through the evening, then move north of the forecast area. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean into Tue night, with gale conditions expected to
develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. Seas are expected
to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Sat night through
Sunday morning. Gale conditions may again pulse Sun night. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to
02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
from 01N to 06N between 19W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface high pressure centered just N of the northern Gulf
coast allowing for moderate NE-E flow over the entire basin. Some
fresh winds are occurring the Yucatan Channel and offshore
Veracruz. A weak surface trough stretches from the NE Mexico coast
into the western Bay of Campeche and is producing scattered
moderate convection in the extreme SW Gulf.

Southerly winds will increase over western Gulf through Sat ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Sun.
The front will quickly move across the basin Sun through Mon.
High pressure in the wake of this front will bring fresh to strong
northerly winds across the Gulf through Mon. These winds will be
confined to the eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue and diminish on Tue
night. The front will be preceded by fresh to strong southerly
winds north of 27N through Sun. Strong southerly winds will
develop over the far western Gulf Wed and Wed night along with
building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

A previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough and
extends from Hispaniola across Jamaica and into the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection has developed in
association with this front in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
strong ENE winds are occurring offshore Colombia, with fresh winds
throughout the western basin. Locally strong winds are also
occurring in the Windward Passage. Across the eastern Caribbean,
generally moderate winds prevail.

The surface trough will move southward and dissipate early Sat,
while the remainder of the front will become stationary over the
far northwest part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sat and
gradually weaken through Sun. Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected near the
coast of Colombia during the overnight hours beginning tonight and
through Sun. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE
Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sat night through
Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to reach from western
Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, from the Dominican Republic
to the central Caribbean by late Tue and become stationary and
weaken over the far NE Caribbean. Mainly fresh north to northeast
winds will follow in behind this front, except for fresh to strong
winds through and near the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

An intense low pressure system resides north of the area with a
cold front trailing into the subtropics from 32N49W to 19N71W.
Fresh N winds behind this front encompass most of the western
Atlantic, with strong winds N of 25N. Seas up to 32 ft are highest
around 30N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
on either side of the front. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic is
dominated by surface ridging allowing for moderate trades to
prevail.

The cold front will move to just SE of the area early Sat and
become stationary through Sun while weakening. Large northerly
swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters
east of the Bahamas through Mon. Another strong cold front will
move offshore northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from
near 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Strong to near
gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north
of 27N, while strong west to northwest winds are expected behind
it. Seas will quickly build over the northwest and central
forecast waters east and west of the front north of 27N from Sun
night through Mon, and over the rest of the waters east of the
Bahamas Tue and Tue night. These seas will begin to slowly subside
Wed and Wed night.

$$
KONARIK
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